Numerical Rick Analysis

The textbook authors Meredith and Mantel (Project Management: A Managerial Approach, 2009) say that, in the end, all measures should be "numeric, reliable, and valid." Yet even if project managers go to the trouble to turn their descriptive nomenclature of risk probability and impact ---"high, medium"--- into numbers ---"25%, 100K"--- the textbooks give little advice on what to do with these numbers. After a brief review of measurement theory terminology, Dr. Cioffi will give an equally brief (and as non-technical as possible) overview of a numerical method he and a colleague developed that enables project managers to determine the amount of contingency funds to set aside to cover a project's risk to any desired statistical limit.

Denis F. Cioffi, Ph.D.

Denis F. Cioffi, Ph.D., an Associate Professor in the Decision Sciences Department in the Business School at The George Washington University, earned his doctorate in astrophysics from the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado. After astrophysics research at the University of California at Berkeley, the Goddard Space Flight Center, and North Carolina State University in Raleigh, his science background led directly to his project and program management experience at various federal agencies. The transition to management comprised positions at the National Science Foundation, NASA Headquarters, and the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of the President. He came to GW from the Center for Science, Trade, and Technology Policy at George Mason University. Dr. Cioffi served as Director of GW's Project Management Program for three years (2001-2004) and currently heads the Project Management Academic Committee. With a colleague in the Department, Dr. Cioffi received a grant to examine the possible transformation to solar power as the primary source for the US's electricity, and a system dynamics model was developed last summer (2009). In addition to his regular academic duties, Cioffi chairs the University's Research and Instructional Technology Committee. For more information (resume, publications, recent papers), visit his website at http://www.cioffi.us or contact him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Cancelations and Refunds:

If you register, please plan to come, whether or not you pre-pay. If you are unable to come, please notify us before Noon the day before the event, to give us time to plan accordingly. Cancelations received after that time will not be eligible for refunds. For those of you who have registered but have not yet paid (for example, because you plan to pay at the door), please understand that we are including you in the meal count, and if you are unable to come and do not let us know in advance (by Noon the day before), you are placing our plans at risk.