Abstract: The Serenity Factor in Risk Management

Risk management can become very complex, in large part because risk analysis is open-ended and non-deterministic. In addition, there is a natural tendency for risk management practitioners to focus their efforts on actions before the fact, forgetting it may not be the best response for a given uncertainty.

Risks are traditionally assessed using three factors: impact, likelihood, and velocity. In this presentation, Mr. Erickson will propose a fourth factor - the Serenity Factor - and will demonstrate how it can be a useful tool for quickly determining whether the response to a given uncertainty would be more effective before or after the fact, or should include a mixture of both preemptive and reactive actions.

Biography: Thomas Erickson

Tom Erickson's career spans 35 years of program and technical management in fields as diverse as software development, communications, business development, test engineering, airfield lighting design, digital control systems and construction management. He holds a B.S. in Electronic Engineering (Circuit Design) from the University of Minnesota and an M.S. in Engineer ing Management (AI & HF) from George Washington University. He was one of the first 31 individuals world-wide awarded the PgMP from the Pilot Credential Program. In addition, he is a Registered Professional Engineer (EE, Vermont) and a certified Program Leader for Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving & Decision Making techniques. Since 1985, he has worked for Lockheed Martin in a variety of program and technical management roles. He is currently engaged in an effort to develop and integrate enterprise risk management practices.